1 The results of budget support and
its cost-effectiveness
1. The Department for International Development (DFID)
is moving away from delivering aid through discrete projects towards
channelling support through national government budgets. This
move is largely supported by many of the larger UK aid agencies
and by developing country governments.[2]
In 200-07 it provided £461 million in budget support to 13
countries (Figure 1). DFID has set out a range of benefits
it seeks from budget support, including improvements in service
delivery leading to reduced poverty and strengthened government
systems within developing countries.[3]
Figure 1: Countries where DFID provided budget support in 2006-07
| COUNTRY
| £m
| COUNTRY
| £m
|
| Tanzania
| 90.0
| Malawi
| 33.3
|
| Ethiopia
| 69.9
| Zambia
| 23.3
|
| Pakistan
| 52.5
| India
| 16.0
|
| Ghana
| 45.8
| Sierra Leone
| 12.5
|
| Uganda
| 40.0
| Nepal
| 5.4
|
| Mozambique
| 36.8
| Nicaragua
| 1.0
|
| Vietnam
| 34.5
| Rwanda
| 0.01
|
Note 1: Rwanda normally receives general
budget support but recorded no expenditure for 2006-07 as a disbursement
was brought forward into financial year 2005-06.
2. Budget support has led to increased expenditure
on services to benefit the poor in six out of nine countries where
budget support programmes have been evaluated.[4]
It often supports developing countries in making education and
health services free to allow better access for the poor.[5]
There have been clear increases in the quantity of services delivered
in many countries receiving budget support. For example, in Rwanda,
between 2000 and 2007 the percentage of children enrolling in
school increased from 72% to 95%.[6]
In Ethiopia, the number of children at school doubled between
2000 and 2006.[7]
3. However, such improvements cannot be attributed
solely to budget support, but also reflect the efforts of the
governments of the developing countries, other donor projects
and prevailing economic conditions and growth rates. Many countries
receiving budget support have increased their primary enrolment
rates significantly (Figure 2), but so have some countries
which have had no budget support. In addition, the modest increase
in Ghana's enrolment rates and the decrease in the rate in Vietnam
show that the pattern of benefits from budget support is by no
means simple.
Figure 2: Progress in primary school enrolment rates in countries where
DFID has a significant bilateral programme
| COUNTRY
| AVERAGE PERCENTAGE OF DFID AID GIVEN AS GENERAL BUDGET SUPPORT 2001-2006
| PRIMARY SCHOOL ENROLMENT RATES
|
| | 2000
| 2005
| Increase 2000-2005
|
| Tanzania
| 64
| 51.4
| 91.5
| 40.1
|
| Mozambique
| 48
| 55.6
| 77.2
| 21.6
|
| Ghana
| 42
| 61.4
| 65.9
| 4.5
|
| Vietnam
| 25
| 95.4
| 87.8
| -7.6
|
| Ethiopia
| 17
| 36.9
| 63.0
| 26.1
|
| Cambodia
| 0
| 91.1
| 98.9
| 7.8
|
| Kenya
| 0
| 67.4
| 79.3
| 11.9
|
| Lesotho
| 0
| 81.8
| 87.1
| 5.3
|
| Nigeria
| 0
| 64.5
| 69.6
| 5.1
|
| India
| 0
| 87.5
| 94.7
| 7.2
|
Note: Insufficient data was available for other countries
Source: United Nations Millennium Development
Goals database and C&AG's Report
4. Donors have often focused attention on increasing
the quantity of service delivery in line with the Millennium Development
Goals. These Goals measure, amongst other things, progress in
education through enrolment rates rather than educational attainment.
As services have expanded to reach more people, the quality has
often declined. For example, in Rwanda, the teacher/pupil ratio
has increased from 54:1 in 2000 to 70:1 in 2006, and shortages
of textbooks and reduced school hours are common as a result of
the increased demand.[8]
DFID has tried to address quality issues through targeted support.
For example, it is working in the education sector in Zambia and
Rwanda to address rising class sizes through recruitment of more
teachers.
5. Budget support aims to improve the financial
management systems of developing countries so that they can spend
their government budgets more efficiently and effectively. Making
such changes to government systems takes time. DFID's assessments
of financial systems tend to show positive improvements, for example,
in adopting reform measures.[9]
DFID drew attention to specific cases of reforms of financial
management such as improving tax collection and increasing competition
in procurement. For example, Mozambique has introduced a new procurement
law and has carried out an independent census of public sector
payroll.[10] However,
although the overall scope and number of reforms has often been
good, implementation has been slow and the reforms have often
had limited impact. In Ghana, for instance, serious weaknesses
such as poor budget control had persisted despite reform measures.[11]
DFID reported that it had delayed budget support payments in a
minority of countries, including Uganda, Ghana and Sierra Leone,
where it had not been satisfied with progress in financial management
reforms.[12]
6. So far budget support has limited impact on
the actual performance of financial management systems. Donor
support has made little difference to the sustainable capacity
of those bodies delivering services. Broad based indicators, capturing
the main aspects of financial management, show that public financial
outcomes have not demonstrably improved between 2000 and 2005
in countries where DFID has a country programme.[13]
The lack of improvement was evident whether or not DFID provided
budget support during this period. In Uganda the number of indicators
where benchmarks were met actually decreased between 2001 and
2004.[14] Overall those
countries which received budget support were performing at the
same level as those which did not.[15]
7. Reducing transaction costs was one of DFID's
stated aims when providing budget support, but the effect on such
costs has been under-researched. DFID's administration costs have
generally declined relative to the amount of aid provided, although
in half of countries costs in absolute terms rose over the period.[16]
DFID and other donors have not yet collected information on the
transaction costs incurred by developing country governments.
DFID reported that setting up budget support has been more costly
than expected due to the need to agree priorities and monitoring
with all donors, but it expected costs to decline over the medium
term. It agreed to monitor the impact of budget support on recipients'
costs in the future although it noted that attribution of costs
to budget support is hard since much aid is still provided through
projects and other channels.[17]
8. DFID recognises that economic growth is key
to achieving its overall aim of reducing poverty. It believes
that budget support can assist the developing country economy
to maximise the potential for growth, for example, by promoting
good macroeconomic management and encouraging increased productivity.[18]
In Malawi, however, an independent evaluation found that the government
had a poor grip of the macro-economic situation and that budget
support actually worsened both macroeconomic performance and the
steady flow of aid funds.[19]
Although budget support has been provided by DFID for ten years
in some countries, direct links between the support, economic
growth and poverty reduction are hard to detect. Many studies
on links between growth and aid in general have been inconclusive
or contested.[20]
9. Budget support is DFID's preferred way of
giving aid.[21] DFID
can point to areas where benefits have arisen, but not the scale
of benefit attributable to budget support. It also has not established
a way of assuring itself that more could not have been achieved
through other types of aid.[22]
Without such assurance DFID cannot provide
evidence of its cost-effectiveness. This lack of evidence raises
doubts over the validity of DFID's claim that budget support is
the most powerful instrument for achieving broad development outcomes.[23]
10. DFID has not focused sufficiently on analysing
and comparing costs to ensure that it gets maximum impact from
its funding.[24] After
up to ten years experience of budget support in thirteen countries,
DFID offered just one example indicating that budget support might
be cost-effective. This was that the unit construction costs of
government-built schools in Mozambique were only half of those
built by donors. DFID has no broad base of such information. For
example, the National Audit Office found that the DFID offices
visited did not capture information routinely on measures of efficiency
such as the unit costs of delivering services through different
providers.[25] In February
2008, DFID established an Investment Committee to improve its
approach to identifying the cost-effectiveness of its choices.
That Committee plans to develop clear benchmarks for unit costs,
average costs and rates of return and to ask DFID country offices
to assess their plans against these benchmarks.[26]
2 Qq 60, 71 Back
3
Q 16 Back
4
Qq 33-35 Back
5
Q 32 Back
6
Q 7 Back
7
Q 29 Back
8
Qq 7, 29, 68 Back
9
Q 42 Back
10
Q 107 Back
11
C&AG's Report, Figure 12 Back
12
Q 12 Back
13
Qq 42, 106 Back
14
Q 12 Back
15
C&AG's Report, para 3.5 Back
16
Q 17 Back
17
Qq 121-123 Back
18
Q 69 Back
19
Qq 10-11 Back
20
C&AG's Report, Appendix 6, page 61 Back
21
Q69; C&AG's Report, Executive Summary, paras 1, 2.10 Back
22
Qq 72-73 Back
23
Qq 3, 5, 75 Back
24
Q 119 Back
25
C&AG's Report, para 4.14 Back
26
Q 128 Back
|